A recent poll indicates that Poland’s Civic Coalition (KO), led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, remains the largest political group; however, forming a governing majority could prove challenging if elections were held at this moment. The survey reveals KO’s support has decreased to 27.3%, a slight drop from the previous 28.7%. Meanwhile, the Law and Justice (PiS) party has seen an increase of 2.8 percentage points, bringing their support to 20.6%. Confederation, another political contender, has also experienced a rise, now standing at 14.1%.
The poll further highlights the positions of smaller parties, with Confederation of the Polish Crown receiving 8.4% support, the Left garnering 7.1%, and Development Plus securing 6.5%. Notably, Poland 2050 and the Polish People’s Party (PSL), both linked to the current ruling coalition, have fallen below the threshold required for electoral representation.
Analysis of the projected outcomes suggests that the Civic Coalition, in alliance with the Left, could control around 198 seats, which is 33 seats short of the 231 needed for a parliamentary majority. On the other hand, a potential alliance between PiS, Confederation, and Development Plus would also be insufficient, totaling 224 seats. However, incorporating the Confederation of the Polish Crown could potentially elevate the right-wing bloc to an estimated 262 seats, surpassing the majority requirement.
The survey was conducted prior to recent developments involving Radosław Piesiewicz, president of the Polish Olympic Committee, and the controversy surrounding a high-priced Patek Philippe watch. Therefore, any political ramifications stemming from this issue are not reflected in the current polling results.